Last week, I had a rare opportunity to drive a selection of the most fuel-efficient vehicles available in Canada during the annual AJAC Eco Run from Vancouver to Nanaimo to Victoria and back (with a little help from BC Ferries). There were 20 vehicles in all: two electric vehicles, two gasoline-electric hybrids, one plug-in hybrid, one extended range electric car, four diesels, nine conventional gasoline-fuelled vehicles and even a hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicle. The event was designed to demonstrate fuel-efficient driving techniques and showcase the latest green vehicle technologies rather than as a contest to pick a winning technology, but it’s clear to me that some of these technologies stand a better chance of long-term success than others.

Hydrogen fuel cells

In many respects, hydrogen gas appears to be the ideal fuel: combined with oxygen in a fuel-cell, it creates electricity that’s fed to batteries which power electric motors to drive the wheels. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles emit no tailpipe emissions aside from a little water and heat, have a driving range of up to 650 km, and can be filled up in about five minutes. Fuel cell vehicles are quiet and comfortable and drive much like an electric car. However, there are two big drawbacks to hydrogen fuel cells: most hydrogen is produced from methane using energy from a powerplant which may be producing its own carbon emissions that counteract the benefits of a zero-emissions fuel cell; and at present there is virtually no transportation or refuelling infrastructure for hydrogen gas and very little economic incentive for anyone to build one. My prediction for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is that they will remain an impractical dream.

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Pure electric cars

Despite the hype surrounding sexy electric cars like the Tesla Model S, affordable electric cars still have a long way to go before becoming palatable for the mass market. When compared to traditional vehicles, most electric cars are so expensive that governments have to subsidize their cost to get people to buy them; most have a pitifully short driving range; recharging times are much longer than with traditional fuels; public recharging stations are few and far between when compared to gas stations especially outside of major cities; and home recharging stations cost extra if you have a house: apartment owners are mostly out of luck. At present, electric car sales are a tiny proportion of the overall market in North America, and vehicle manufacturers are struggling to get people to buy them in numbers that make producing them profitable. It’s not even clear that electric cars are more emissions-friendly: according to a recent report by University of Toronto professor, Christopher Kennedy, when electricity is generated from coal power plants, the greenhouse gas emissions produced to charge electric cars would be more than the carbon output from traditional vehicles.

The good news is that electricity is much cheaper than gasoline, if not free at some public rechargers, reducing monthly fuel costs significantly. And in the next few years, lighter, more powerful and less expensive lithium-ion batteries are expected to double the typical driving range to over 300 km. Vehicle manufacturers hope to lower the price of electric cars to a point where they don’t need subsidies. Even so, there remain big disadvantages: the new generation of batteries still won’t be able to compete with the longer driving range of conventional gasoline vehicles and hybrids; and electric cars will have to be recharged more frequently than conventional vehicles and hybrids. As well, the recharging time is painfully slow compared to the 5-minute fill-up time of a gas tank. Even in ten years, the number of public charging stations won’t come anywhere near the number of public gas stations and at some point, organizations who’ve invested in recharging stations will have to start charging for power. There’s always the hope that oil companies will decide to get on board and promote electricity: don’t hold your breath! My prediction is that in ten years, pure electric cars will still be the next big thing.

Hybrids

Gasoline-electric hybrids are currently the most practical electrified vehicles: they offer the range, refuelling convenience, comfort, safety, reliability and general performance of a traditional car along with better fuel economy and lower emissions. They don’t have to be plugged in every day and owners don’t have to worry about the battery running out of power. Since they don’t need power from the grid, hybrids don’t contribute to greenhouse gas emissions from powerplants where coal is burned . However, hybrids are currently more expensive to buy than comparable gas-only vehicles, their hybrid batteries tend to be large and heavy, and many don’t offer the same level of driving enjoyment as traditional cars. In ten years, smaller, more powerful batteries, more fuel-efficient internal combustion engines, improved electronics and better driving dynamics will likely improve their performance and fuel economy to the point where people will actually enjoy driving them. As well, lower battery costs combined with increased demand will lower hybrid vehicle pricing to a level comparable with non-hybrids. In my opinion, the outlook for hybrids in ten years is more positive than any vehicles you have to plug in.

Plug-in hybrids

Plug-in hybrids offer similar benefits to hybrids but add more electric-only driving range by allowing the owner to plug the car into the electricity grid to top up the battery. Since plug-in hybrids use the gasoline engine less often they offer reduced fuel consumption, lower overall tailpipe emissions and lower fuel costs. They also take less time to charge because their battery is smaller. However, the electric-only range of a plug-in hybrid is short – usually less than 20 km. And as with electric car owners, plug-in hybrid owners need to buy and install a 240-volt home recharging unit. That’s not always possible for city dwellers in townhouses and apartments, many of whom don’t even have access to a 110-volt outlet in the parking garage. In ten years, newer apartment buildings will install a few communal charging stations and there will be more public recharging stations, but public recharging stations will never be as numerous as traditional gas stations and recharging times will never be as quick as a gasoline fill-up. If people living in urban areas don’t have a reliable place to recharge, they won’t want an electric car or a plug-in hybrid. For these reasons, I think plug-in hybrids will have less appeal than regular hybrids.

Extended range electric vehicles

These are electric vehicles with an onboard gasoline (or diesel) engine to charge the battery when the charge runs out and keep the vehicle running beyond its electric-only range. This eliminates ‘range anxiety’, but that’s because the electric-only driving range is relatively short – usually under 60 km. Extended range electric cars need to be recharged frequently to offer electric-only operation. That requires a charging station at home, if you have a home where one can be installed. As with electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, extended range vehicles need access to public charging stations more frequently than conventional vehicles need to fill up, and recharging takes much longer. In ten years, smaller, more powerful batteries will extend their electric-only range reducing the need to recharge as often but they’ll still depend on the cord.

Diesel

Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, diesel has never been able to seriously challenge gasoline in North America, except when it comes to SUVs, trucks and commercial vehicles (and a few German car brands). Diesel is most popular with larger, heavier vehicles that can take advantage of the superior torque, fuel economy, reliability and driving range. Today’s diesel engines are far cleaner, quieter and more powerful than earlier diesel engines thanks to ultra-low sulphur diesel fuel, improved engine technology, and emission reducing catalysts and urea additives. It’s still an open question whether diesel fuel can meet the stricter tailpipe emissions of the future, but if it can, the torque benefits of diesel engines would be advantageous in hybrid powertrains and extended range electric cars. Diesel refuelling stations are still less numerous than gas stations, but they’re far more common than electric charging stations. Diesel hybrid powertrains could prove to be a surprisingly successful combination in ten years.

Conventional gasoline vehicles

Conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engines in combination with improved transmissions, electronics, and vehicle design have made huge gains in fuel economy, emissions reductions, performance and reliability over the past twenty years. Developments such as direct fuel injection, variable valve timing, turbocharging, variable air intakes, cylinder deactivation, idle-stop systems, vehicle weight reduction, friction-reducing parts, electronic controls, continuously variable transmissions, and catalytic converters have all contributed to vastly improved fuel economy and reduced emissions, despite the trend to bigger, heavier vehicles. The wave of the future seems to be smaller, turbocharged engines assisted by greater electric operation of controls previously powered by the engine, such as steering, braking, and air conditioning. Idle stop systems, cylinder deactivation, and continuously variable transmissions are also playing a big role in reducing fuel consumption and emissions. Improvements will continue to be made, but I think serious reductions in fuel consumption are most likely to come when the internal combustion engine works in combination with a powerful battery, as they do in hybrid vehicles.

Ten years from now, my guess is that gasoline-electric or diesel-electric hybrids will provide the best combination of retail price, fuel economy, emissions, performance, comfort, and refuelling convenience. They’re the most practical alternative to conventional gasoline engines.

I also predict that Tesla, the electric car manufacturer (not the battery maker), will go out of business or be absorbed by a major automobile manufacturer within ten years!

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