Diesel

Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, diesel has never been able to seriously challenge gasoline in North America, except when it comes to SUVs, trucks and commercial vehicles (and a few German car brands). Diesel is most popular with larger, heavier vehicles that can take advantage of the superior torque, fuel economy, reliability and driving range. Today’s diesel engines are far cleaner, quieter and more powerful than earlier diesel engines thanks to ultra-low sulphur diesel fuel, improved engine technology, and emission reducing catalysts and urea additives. It’s still an open question whether diesel fuel can meet the stricter tailpipe emissions of the future, but if it can, the torque benefits of diesel engines would be advantageous in hybrid powertrains and extended range electric cars. Diesel refuelling stations are still less numerous than gas stations, but they’re far more common than electric charging stations. Diesel hybrid powertrains could prove to be a surprisingly successful combination in ten years.

Conventional gasoline vehicles

Conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engines in combination with improved transmissions, electronics, and vehicle design have made huge gains in fuel economy, emissions reductions, performance and reliability over the past twenty years. Developments such as direct fuel injection, variable valve timing, turbocharging, variable air intakes, cylinder deactivation, idle-stop systems, vehicle weight reduction, friction-reducing parts, electronic controls, continuously variable transmissions, and catalytic converters have all contributed to vastly improved fuel economy and reduced emissions, despite the trend to bigger, heavier vehicles. The wave of the future seems to be smaller, turbocharged engines assisted by greater electric operation of controls previously powered by the engine, such as steering, braking, and air conditioning. Idle stop systems, cylinder deactivation, and continuously variable transmissions are also playing a big role in reducing fuel consumption and emissions. Improvements will continue to be made, but I think serious reductions in fuel consumption are most likely to come when the internal combustion engine works in combination with a powerful battery, as they do in hybrid vehicles.

Ten years from now, my guess is that gasoline-electric or diesel-electric hybrids will provide the best combination of retail price, fuel economy, emissions, performance, comfort, and refuelling convenience. They’re the most practical alternative to conventional gasoline engines.

I also predict that Tesla, the electric car manufacturer (not the battery maker), will go out of business or be absorbed by a major automobile manufacturer within ten years!

Connect with Autos.ca