Topic: Buying Tesla shares as a long term investment

[UnknownJinX]

it must be extra convenient to ignore the purchase cost of a Model S

Bought the 2013 Tesla S from Tesla in 2015 with warranty so the costs have been extremely low, and note it's not a lease or finance.   Obviously comparison to a lease on Toyota Corolla is not apples to apples, but IF I sold the S today, the 5 year cost would be inline with that of my parents 5 year spend on their Corolla.   Tesla's depreciate more slowly, which is why the 5 year cost is lower than one might expect for a car that cost 2.5x the Toyota.   It's looking more likely we'll be keeping both our current EV's until 2022 or so when Cybertruck is in production, and then it either replaces the Tesla, or my Smart, either way.

Well, yeah, used cars depreciate more slowly, duh. Looking at the chart here, a Model S depreciates to 63% of its original value after 2 years, and you bought a 2013 model in 2015. The guy before you already ate up a good chunk of the depreciation hit.

https://usedfirst.com/cars/tesla/model-s/

By comparison, a Corolla depreciates to 75% of its original value after 2 years. Kinda irrelevant seeing how they are completely different cars but it's just a reference.

https://usedfirst.com/cars/toyota/corolla/

Here is another thing to think about. Model S is still on the same generation, there hasn't been a 2nd Gen Model S. I would be interested to see the depreciation hit when a 2nd Gen Model S hits if that's something they do.

[Great_Big_Abyss]

^^^It's pointless using real-world facts, figures, and logic with a Tesla Slappie. 

[UnknownJinX]

^^^It's pointless using real-world facts, figures, and logic with a Tesla Slappie.

Yeah I am the idiot here.

[bye]

a Model S depreciates to 63% of its original value after 2 years, and you bought a 2013 model in 2015. The guy before you already ate up a good chunk of the depreciation hit     

The guy before me traded for a P85D, presumably he wasn't worried about depreciation, he wanted the latest and greatest. :-)

Ref:
https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

Has tracked the prices of 562 Model S (non performance) listed and sold from 2015-2020 by Tesla.
Two (2) had prices lower than $40K.

My Model S has depreciated to ~40% original value in 7 years.
That is spectacularly good depreciation and is primarily the reason that our used Tesla can be similar cost to a Toyota Corolla lease over the time (2015-2020).

 
Model S is still on the same generation, there hasn't been a 2nd Gen Model S. I would be interested to see the depreciation hit when a 2nd Gen Model S hits if that's something they do.

Wrong.  Multiple generations of Model S.
https://www.autolist.com/tesla-model+s/tesla-model+s-generations

Comprehensive changes made (hundreds)
https://teslatap.com/articles/model-s-changes-from-2012-to-2019/

The latest "Raven" power train and adaptive suspension evolution is just one in a long list of major improvements to the Model S in nearly 8 years.

The base Model S today is 1.5x longer range, dual motor, faster accelerating and incredibly advanced driving assistance capability than the top of the line performance RWD model in 2012.   It is roughly the same price in absolute dollars and less expensive in converted currency.

[UnknownJinX]

I feel like I have some kind of masochistic tendency or something. It's just weirdly fun.

The guy before me traded for a P85D, presumably he wasn't worried about depreciation, he wanted the latest and greatest. :-)

Ref:
https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

Has tracked the prices of 562 Model S (non performance) listed and sold from 2015-2020 by Tesla.
Two (2) had prices lower than $40K.

My Model S has depreciated to ~40% original value in 7 years.
That is spectacularly good depreciation and is primarily the reason that our used Tesla can be similar cost to a Toyota Corolla lease over the time (2015-2020).

Yeah, but it was a used car when you bought it, while your parents bought a brand new Corolla. My point is that you picked yours up when the worst depreciation hit has been taken by the guy before you, which is almost 40%.

It's great that you can afford the asking price of a used Tesla. Not everyone can. The depreciation doesn't matter if you can't pay for the dang thing to begin with.

Wrong.  Multiple generations of Model S.
https://www.autolist.com/tesla-model+s/tesla-model+s-generations

Comprehensive changes made (hundreds)
https://teslatap.com/articles/model-s-changes-from-2012-to-2019/

The latest "Raven" power train and adaptive suspension evolution is just one in a long list of major improvements to the Model S in nearly 8 years.

The base Model S today is 1.5x longer range, dual motor, faster accelerating and incredibly advanced driving assistance capability than the top of the line performance RWD model in 2012.   It is roughly the same price in absolute dollars and less expensive in converted currency.

Even the article says it's more of a mid-cycle refresh/facelift than a new generation.

Okay, it might be more than what other manufacturers typically do for a mid-cycle refresh, but it still isn't a fully new generation. When Tesla is coming out with an "all-new" Model S, that's when I would be interested to see the depreciation. Maybe it won't be as bad because some software can be made to be compatible with older models, maybe it will be like other cars.

[dkaz]

[bye]

https://ir.tesla.com/stock-information/historic-stock-lookup

July 2017 stock price $320
July 2020 stock price $1600

[bye]

like a ponzi scheme.... Yes all the fanatics will tell you they will take over the world but do you really think that is going to happen in the next year or two based on the model 3 which will cost 50-70k CAD?  Many of the other automakers have solid plans to bring BEVs in 2018 and 2019

post didn't age well @kevlar

Competition?  Solid plans?   

[ktm525]

meh. Nortel was once a high flyer too. Even a Tesla love boy must admit it is beyond over valued right now. The only way it breaks even is with credits.

[bye]

The Tesla factory is the old mothballed GM plant where GM and Toyota made the Corolla and a couple of other units.  Tesla claims it's the most advanced car factory in the world.      According to the below article, the plant produces 25K Tesli  with 10,000 workers.  Toyota assembles 550K vehicles and 600K engines plus all dashes on site with 8,000 workers. 

Toyota, you mean the company Tesla stock is worth more than today, that one?

Tesla reaffirmed guidance that 2020 production would be 500K vehicles from California Factory you derided, plus, that other factory which was a muddy hole in the ground a little more than a year ago in China.

[bye]

only way it breaks even is with credits.

Q2 2020 automotive gross margin EXCLUDING credits >%18, beating street estimates

[ktm525]

Since Musk compensation is tied to stock price I don't trust what they release.

[rrocket]

only way it breaks even is with credits.

Q2 2020 automotive gross margin EXCLUDING credits >%18, beating street estimates

And yet, they again needing massive credit sales ($420+ million!!) to show a profit.

[Gurgie]

only way it breaks even is with credits.

Q2 2020 automotive gross margin EXCLUDING credits >%18, beating street estimates

And yet, they again needing massive credit sales ($420+ million!!) to show a profit.

Hmmmmm?? But that doesn't make sense for SE.

Sent from my SM-G970W using Tapatalk

[Guy]

I think SE is a bot set up by the oil industry so everyone here hates EV’s. He sure does a great job of it.

[Gurgie]

I think SE is a bot set up by the oil industry so everyone here hates EV’s. He sure does a great job of it.

Nice!! I agree.

Sent from my SM-G970W using Tapatalk

[bye]

But that doesn't make sense for SE

As I posted in main electric car thread, credits are a bonus that funds Tesla R&D, whereas automotive gross profit is 18.7%, meaning of course Tesla makes a lot of money on production of cars.  Credits are a great way for legacy auto makers to fund Tesla R&D in AI chip (hired the expert from Apple who built the iPhone chips), FSD (hired the top AI experts in the world like AndreC), mega casting (the entire rear Model Y is made from two casts, industry first), etc.

[Triple Bob]

But that doesn't make sense for SE

As I posted in main electric car thread, credits are a bonus that funds Tesla R&D, whereas automotive gross profit is 18.7%, meaning of course Tesla makes a lot of money on production of cars.  Credits are a great way for legacy auto makers to fund Tesla R&D in AI chip (hired the expert from Apple who built the iPhone chips), FSD (hired the top AI experts in the world like AndreC), mega casting (the entire rear Model Y is made from two casts, industry first), etc.

If the credits are part of the R&D cost, and are higher than the gross profit, then Tesla doesn't make a profit if they took the credits away. It's fairly simple.

[bye]

Tesla doesn't make a profit if they took the credits away

Tell that to the auto makers buying the credits from Tesla because they are unable to compete with Tesla, and clearly unable to produce compelling EV's.  I'm sure the nuance you are highlighting is troubling to them, namely, that auto makers are losing ref:

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4254-f1cc-4929-a0b6-6623b00475a6

[rrocket]

But that doesn't make sense for SE

As I posted in main electric car thread, credits are a bonus that funds Tesla R&D, whereas automotive gross profit is 18.7%, meaning of course Tesla makes a lot of money on production of cars.  Credits are a great way for legacy auto makers to fund Tesla R&D in AI chip (hired the expert from Apple who built the iPhone chips), FSD (hired the top AI experts in the world like AndreC), mega casting (the entire rear Model Y is made from two casts, industry first), etc.

It does not fund their R&D. You can see it on their financials (which I'm guessing you've never looked at). It seems to sit in their AR/deferred income.

You can clearly see their R&D was significantly less than the credit value... ...which shows these credits aren't used for that.