Topic: Feature: The Powertrain of Tomorrow

[Autos_Editor]

Electric, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell, diesel motor, or gasoline engine: Greg Wilson weighs their pros and cons and makes some predictions.
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[Sir Osis of Liver]

In the Canadian context, the U of T study is more click-bait than relevant. Most of our power is hydroelectric and nuclear.



The only major issue for pure electric cars for most people is upfront cost. Most car trips are commutes, and well within typical electric car ranges. In home charging stations aren't cheap, but compared to frivolities like granite counter-tops, easily justifiable for rational people.

http://www.homedepot.ca/product/30-amp-indoor-electric-vehicle-charging-station-2nd-gen-enhanced-model/989931

I think diesel's days are likely numbered aside from commercial vehicles. Gas-electric hybrids will likely be with us for a while.

[Noto]

I love the article, but think the concluding outlook is unlikely.

Diesel-Electric hybrids are unlikely due to cost of manufacture and low horsepower numbers.  The torque is really overlapped with the electric motor's (instant and) torque-rich properties.

I also disagree re: range extended or PHEV.  I think THOSE are the way of the future, especially as battery technology gets better (smaller/more dense).

I, personally, want to see battery longevity be of primal concern, and designed to last the life of the vehicle rather than half of it (warranties for 8 years should be at least 12 years, IMO).  That, or reconditioning should be a cheap service.

[dirtyjeffer]

in my late teens, i worked at a gas station that had CNG...it wasn't overly expensive to convert a regular gasoline vehicle to accept CNG, and CNG was dirt cheap...i am somewhat surprised there isn't a home version CNG station available, with more thought to provide CNG powered vehicles...the beauty of CNG is the engine can run on either (switch on dash to select which mode to run in)...many homes already have NG, so surely setting up a home fill up solution should be somewhat feasible...CNG is still relatively inexpensive (as it is quite abundant), and i would imagine setting up CNG infrastructure (stations) wouldn't be overly difficult (either tap into existing NG lines or use an above ground tank, like they do with propane)...as well, perhaps even offer CNG cars from the factory, instead of hybrids...you don't need a fancy hybrid powertrain, you'd simply be using pretty much the same powertrain, but it would be fitted with a CNG tank instead of a conventional gasoline tank.

i think the conversion cost back in the days was about $3k, which wasn't too bad considering we'd drive around town all night in a Sierra 4x4 for about $5 (gasoline would have cost us at least $25).

[dirtyjeffer]

Diesel-Electric hybrids are unlikely due to cost of manufacture and low horsepower numbers.  The torque is really overlapped with the electric motor's (instant and) torque-rich properties.

as i've posted before, diesel/electric is not a likely option for a passenger car...diesels like to run, not stop/start...their efficiency is in running for long periods of time...this is why they are great for people who are on the road all the time, but are not a good choice for someone who does limited in city driving.

[Noto]

...but even in the same powertrain, power ratings weren't equivalent, and CNG tanks were...large...to say the least.  In a truck, yeah, who cares.  In a Yaris?   

[pcsp]

For what it's worth, here is my prediction. The winner will be...Extended range electric vehicles. Battery technology will evolve, but, more importantly, charging technology will evolve along with it. Within a few years the substantial energy generation of a moving vehicle will be effectively translated into the ability to recharge batteries adequately while driving. Hybrids do this now, but the process will become so efficient and effective that the gas motor will no longer be necessary. Makes perfect sense when you think about it.  Hopefully (for car enthusiasts and freedom lovers), this will happen before autonomous vehicles take over.

[johngenx]

I really expected to see the Volt style of driveline becoming more common.  It's really an EV with a small ICE charger and posts amazing numbers in terms of low overall energy use.  It has real range and operates just like the cars we're used to.

[Noto]

Hopefully (for car enthusiasts and freedom lovers), this will happen before autonomous vehicles take over.

...see, this is the compounding variable.

If we move to a shared autonomous car only model, then there will be a fleet of vehicles that are all electric and never need to be filled.  They will charge, do their duty, then when they run low, will return to their home base for recharging.

It'll be much like this...

[dirtyjeffer]

...but even in the same powertrain, power ratings weren't equivalent, and CNG tanks were...large...to say the least.  In a truck, yeah, who cares.  In a Yaris?   

power was down about 20% from my recollection...not a big deal in regular driving...sure, not good if you are a snow plow driver, but for regular diving, that is fine...plus, as i mentioned, you can use either fuel source (this is what my friend's dad did with theirs, gas for work, CNG for commuting)...especially considering today's cars are likely 50% more powerful than the cars from back then anyway...also, one of customers was Ward's New Drivers (driver training) and they used Chevettes.

It looks like Honda sells a CNG version in the US: http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-natural-gas/

[dirtyjeffer]

I really expected to see the Volt style of driveline becoming more common.  It's really an EV with a small ICE charger and posts amazing numbers in terms of low overall energy use.  It has real range and operates just like the cars we're used to.

that is essentially how CNG vehicles work...simply replace the battery with the CNG tank, and eliminate all the costly hybrid stuff...as i said, i still don't understand why this disappeared and everyone is all hyped about electric hybrids...a fortune for R&D, a fortune to buy, who knows how much for batteries (not to mention the environmental impact of said batteries), all while they could have simply done further development on CNG for pennies on the dollar.

[Sir Osis of Liver]

Hydraulic hybrids have been demonstrated to be very cost effective and efficient in commercial vehicles. I'd like to see fleets seriously start adopting them.

http://www.epa.gov/region9/air/hydraulic-hybrid/

[tpl]

Consumers Gas, the predecessor to Direct Energy  IIRC offered a home compressor back in the '80s.   I think the take up was very low.    Only people with houses and parking off street AND NG supply could use it obviously.    City dwellers with only on street parking or in apartments ( compressor could not be in a residential building) out of luck. Anyone far enough outside the city to not have NG, out of luck.   I faintly remember there were some other problems with installing one and they were not very fast to fill a tank either.


Some of those problems also apply to home charging units for EVs and plug in Hybrids.    Example:  When I was in TO I had parking off the lane behind my house in my back yard real offstreet parking in downtown TO!    Separated from the lane by a gate.  But no way would I be dragging a heavy 240V cable around outdoors in rain and snow drifts and unless that cable was 50 feet long the charger would have been out in the weather as well and yet another 240V cable , in conduit I think, going back into the house to the panel at the far end of the house.


A forthcoming problem.  There was a very cogent article in either the NP or G&M or on BNN last week about the GTA running out of space for regular houses  with garages  because of the green belt and more and more people who wish to be in the GTA will be in condo apartments or townhouses  where there may be limited space for chargers as the article suggests.


Lastly.   What will the government do for revenue if people stop buying gas?  Special meters on chargers or at home to charge an appropriate amount per kWh for power used by vehicle chargers?   That will go down like a lead balloon.

[dirtyjeffer]

I faintly remember there were some other problems with installing one and they were not very fast to fill a tank either.

i am not familiar with the home ones, but our station would fill a car tank in about the same time as gasoline (about 3-5 minutes)...the station closed the CNG pumps a few years later, so i'm not even sure if anyone here even sells it any more...in terms of a business case, it was a tough one...most cars were gas so we would get (example) 1000 cars a day, with each car getting $20-$35 in fuel...we would get (example) 20 cars a day for CNG, and most were $3-$8 to fill...this is why i thought perhaps a home solution would be a good possible option...one of those supercharger modules to charge a hybrid seem to be about $3k...perhaps a CNG compressor would be much less ($1k?).

[tpl]

I faintly remember there were some other problems with installing one and they were not very fast to fill a tank either.

i am not familiar with the home ones, but our station would fill a car tank in about the same time as gasoline (about 3-5 minutes)...the station closed the CNG pumps a few years later, so i'm not even sure if anyone here even sells it any more...in terms of a business case, it was a tough one...most cars were gas so we would get (example) 1000 cars a day, with each car getting $20-$35 in fuel...we would get (example) 20 cars a day for CNG, and most were $3-$8 to fill.

I suggest that a compressor at a gas station would be a whole different animal that one at home and could have had a  tank of compressed gas with a compressor running in the background to help provide quick fillups.   I don't know but I bet there would be something to avoid cars sitting on the forecourt for any longer than necessary.

[tpl]

When you pack a lot of energy in a small space  and then "discharge" it quickly that is close to the definition of a bomb.    BBQ tanks, gas tanks in cars in Hollywood, Crude oil in tank cars.      Soooooo what happens to one of these super powered car traction batteries with a zillion kWh  in a small box when you mistreat it seriously in a major accident or someone sets your car on fire ( happens in TO)

[dirtyjeffer]

I suggest that a compressor at a gas station would be a whole different animal that one at home and could have had a  tank of compressed gas with a compressor running in the background to help provide quick fillups.   I don't know but I bet there would be something to avoid cars sitting on the forecourt for any longer than necessary.

agreed...i'm not sure how a home solution would work, but like you said, perhaps a tank similar in size to the tank in your vehicle, already fully compressed and ready to dispense into your vehicle as needed, and refilled whenever...somewhat similar to how an air compressor at a shop works (keeps a full tank of compressed air ready for use).

[dirtyjeffer]

When you pack a lot of energy in a small space  and then "discharge" it quickly that is close to the definition of a bomb.    BBQ tanks, gas tanks in cars in Hollywood, Crude oil in tank cars.      Soooooo what happens to one of these super powered car traction batteries with a zillion kWh  in a small box when you mistreat it seriously in a major accident or someone sets your car on fire ( happens in TO)

to be fair, a car full of gas is dangerous too...i would imagine there are technologies to reduce the danger with compressed gasses, or at least to help minimize risk as much as possible.

[Snowman]

Nothing will change unless one becomes cheaper to buy and operate than the current one.

[JohnM]

Excellent article.  Hydrogen is indeed DOA for widespread use because of the reasons cited and also because creating hydrogen and then converting it to electricity is lossy at both ends.  In the coming era of increased energy scarcity, this is a fatal flaw. 

The shortcoming of few charging stations is a problem which could be solved in 2 years and a few billion dollars.  It is utterly simple to do with completely tried and tested technology.  This cannot be seen as a shortcoming, just a failure to act.

I think the majority of people could get along very well with EVs with 150km ranges as their main driver once the charging issues is cleared up.  Homes, condos, offices, shopping malls - we have block heaters all over the coldest parts of this country.  Charging is a non-issue.  For longer drives, you can rent a vehicle.  Maybe Grand-Tourers-to-Go??

I'd like to see the scarcity math of new battery critical materials but if there is no problem there, an 80% electric fleet looks completely viable.   I think all that needs to be done to make this a slam dunk is a doubling of battery density.  A 300km range would absolutely convert the buying public assuming a premium of maybe $5k per car.  this would also doubly put paid to hydrogen.

Cheers,
John M.