...is the mainstream 30 something (not enthusiast or cult-follower) going to buy an STi over some of the other premium offerings that now share this market space?
I believe I am responding for my fellow market spacers...Nope.
The CLA45 and S3 (or even CLA250 and A3) will be wildly popular for the price...the STi will have a lot of difficulty competing.
Let's be honest - the only difference between the WRX and STi will be engine/suspension/wheel colour/spoiler. There will be a bunch of WRXs sold, but I think the STi will falter, unless the price of both has dropped dramatically. Subaru's new interior materials are decent, but the layout/design isn't going to turn any heads. It's adequate at best. The new power steering bugged me, and Lady Noto - and she knows little about cars. For her, the '14 Fozzie XT felt wrong and she didn't like it at all. CVT killed it for her, as did the added size and steering feel. We're buying hers out only because the resale value is so strong, and then jumping the Subaru ship and finding something a little more grown-up.
I don't think Subaru is moving in the right direction for the STi, even though they are doing a good job with the Forester, WRX, etc. If you want an Impreza that is higher performance, the WRX is a great offering. Why the masses would drop another $5k for more horsepower (at the expense of fuel economy) and a stiffer ride just isn't resonating with me.
Whereas the previous STi had a hatchback, a 6-speed, and a few extra ponies for similar horsepower, it made sense. Now? What's differentiating the STi from the WRX for anyone other than an irresponsible 20-something who says "my dream car since I was 15 was an STi?"
I think they need to make an Impreza XT (topping out at $26k), and then make a $35k WRX as an ultra high-performance beast (thinking M3 killer at half the price). Forester XTs are all over the place, but I likely wouldn't have considered buying an XT if it were called the Subaru Forester STi with a giant wing on the back.