Topic: Auto Tech: Driving in the future

[Autos_Editor]

By 2020, experts predict that advanced internal combustion engines will still be the dominant powerplants in the marketplace, reports Jim Kerr.

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[JohnM]

The only way the ICE can be a mainstay of automotive transport will be if cars become vastly smaller, lighter and more aerodynamic.

Check this news item from last week.

http://www.autos.ca/general-news/oil-consumption-hits-an-all-time-high

At 87 million barrels of oil consumed daily on this planet, our annual oil consumption is 32 billion barrels.  "Proven" (how much do the Saudis really have???) oil reserves are 1,500 billion barrels giving a 50 year life to reserves.  This assumes no more reserves discovered and consumption will remain flat.  Consumption will continue to skyrocket in China and India though and there will be more discoveries although these are fewer and smaller.  eg that big find in deep water several hundred km of Brazil's coast was the biggest in 20 years but there is only enough oil in it for 1.3 years global consumption.

Also, as a climate scientist will tell you, in order to keep carbon emissions down to the level to prevent any more than a 2 degree C increase in global temperatures, 3/4 of the current know reserves will have to be left in the ground.  Not a great likelihood unfortunately but, any way you cut it, the cars we drive will have to get much smaller and probably much slower.

Suits me fine but there will be huge resistance from some quarters.

Kerr's prediction is probably right for 2020 but things will have to change dramatically after that.

Cheers,
John M.

[tpl]

Also, as a climate scientist will tell you, in order to keep carbon emissions down to the level to prevent any more than a 2 degree C increase in global temperatures, 3/4 of the current known reserves will have to be left in the ground. 

I think you mean "as a climate scientist will theorize".

As far as I can see they tend to tell you... that it is  all your fault and you should start taking the bus and not use a/c and lots of other unacceptable life style changes which, don't know about you, I have zero intention of doing.

[JohnM]

"I think you mean "as a climate scientist will theorize".

Theory isn't a word applied to this any longer by scientists but by politicians and newspaper editors.  Anyway, would you want a climate scientist theorizing on the subject of climate or a politician or oil executive?

Also, check this link which just landed on my desktop 10 minutes ago.  It is oil production forecasts by the US department of energy and confirmed by the US department of defense.

http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau230410.htm

The data is 2 years old but the drift is pretty clear.

Cheers,
John M.

[Gwido]

As far as I can see they tend to tell you... that it is  all your fault and you should start taking the bus and not use a/c and lots of other unacceptable life style changes which, don't know about you, I have zero intention of doing.

That's what's nice about electric propulsion. It is so much more efficient compared to ICE that it allows us to continue in our wasteful ways. At least for a time...

[tpl]

There needs to be another graph in there I think...it may be already there but under a different name.
How long do fossil fuels last if all the coal, and lignite are used.  Coal into oil, Lignite ( brown coal) to power stations.   Eastern Europe had/has some very dirty Lignite fueled power stations  but then nobody had ever tried to clean them up.  Anyway, stop burning oil for process heat....even to the extent that all domestic oil furnaces be scrapped. or for electricity: Hydro, nuclear or as a last resort, gas.

The only real answer that will work for a good long time is to reduce the human population from 6.7 Bn and rising down to perhaps 3 Bn and stable.

[redman]

When regarding ICE engines I find interesting that there is a sole focus on fuel economy and air pollution. I've even heard a particular Canadian Auto reporter state how much he loves the ICE engine and how it's not that bad in terms of air pollution percentages when compared to other smog causes.

We forget that ICE engines pollute our environment beyond air quality, namely ground water. ICE vehicles leak all kinds of oils on the road which end up directly in our sewers and water ways which eventually end up in our drinking water and  contaminate soil. An ICE vehicle typically has engine oil, tranny/power steering fluid, brake fluid and lubricants, many of which eventually leak down on to the ground, be it road or earth.

I worked at a dealer years ago beside an old car scrap yard. We were not allowed to dig because the ground was considered so toxic by years of direct ground draining of automotive fluids and mercury poisoning (switches) from the crushing of cars. I believe mercury has been eliminated in vehicles or soon to be.

Let's talk real pollutions when discussing most ICE vehicles on today's road and stop clouding the truth up in smoke !!!!

[JohnM]

"There needs to be another graph in there I think...it may be already there but under a different name.
How long do fossil fuels last if all the coal, and lignite are used."

This link on peak coal will give you an idea of the issues involved.  Broad range of references.

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/05/peak-coal-this-year.html

Also, I doubt more than a billion people can be supported due to soil constraints.

My next post will be about cars exclusively, I promise!

Cheers,
John M.

[redman]

Quote: "Lastly, Mazda has developed an improved electro hydraulic steering system with a shorter steering gear ratio for better steering feel and more driving pleasure."

How is this news ? when groups such as Toyota are switching to fully electric steering systems reducing complex hydraulic systems that require fluid and eventually leak from
seals. Electric steering systems have little parasitic loss since they use excess electricity produced by the vehicles electrical system. Whatever Mazda save your marketing ploys for your ads, not a informed user site.

[tpl]

"There needs to be another graph in there I think...it may be already there but under a different name.
How long do fossil fuels last if all the coal, and lignite are used."

This link on peak coal will give you an idea of the issues involved.  Broad range of references.

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/05/peak-coal-this-year.html

Also, I doubt more than a billion people can be supported due to soil constraints.

My next post will be about cars exclusively, I promise!

Cheers,
John M.

I bet the number is 2 to 2.5 billion.  That was the number on the planet when I was born with no "green revolution".   The big trick will be to lower the birth rate per woman AFTER the cull... don't want to go to all that trouble and be back there 50 years later.