There is no reliable method available to forecast exchange rates. Paul Krugman
Indeed few things in life can be "reliably" predicted, but sometimes exchange rates can be
plausibly predicted.
No? Try telling that to George Soros, who has made billions trading exchange rates and, most famously, breaking the Bank of England.
Likewise, tell that to folks at DailyFX who've made a small fortune betting that the USD would soar this year against the Euro and the sickly loonie.
Paul Krugman is mouthy but largely clueless, like his fellow Princeton economics professor, the ineffective Fed chairman Ben Bernanke (who arguably should be fired for incompetence).
If Krugman truly knew what he was talking about, he'd be independently wealthy like Soros instead of a wage-slave.