Here is a scary hypothetical scenario:
This scenario is based on the Chrysler minivan which is produced in three shifts in Windsor and one shift at a plant in St. Louis. Each shift in Windsor employs about 1500 workers. St. Louis has been operating at one shift for quite a while now.
Chrysler decides to eliminate one shift in Windsor and send the work to St, Louis where new workers can be hired for $15 per hour. After adjusting for benefit costs they could save approximately $50 per hour for each new hire in St. Louis versus the Canadian labour cost. The savings on each worker is approximately $50 x 2000 hours/yr = $100,000 per job. Let's assume that they can hire two thirds of the workers required (ie. 1000) at the new hire rate, and the balance are recalled workers at the normal UAW rate.
The labour savings on this move is approximately $100 million per year (1000 workers x $100,000) excluding any savings on the amount that the legacy UAW workers are cheaper than CAW workers.
This company has it's back against the wall and is fighting for it's survival. The St. Louis plant is already set up for this product and would require no new tooling. I am sure the company will be forced to look into this strategy as $100 million is a heck of a lot of money.
I don't feel good about this situation and what it would do to the workforce.
The only traction that the CAW has currently is they could strike and disrupt the production at Brampton. In the long run the company would want to marginalize the production in Canada to remove the last strategic strength of the CAW.
Keep in mind that Chrysler is now owned by Cerberus which is a venture capital firm and will be looking to make quick profits. If they can't make a good return, they will cut their losses, dismember the company and sell off the pieces for as much as they can to get their capital back to re-invest elsewhere.