$40/1000 km is only true if you're doing mostly highway driving. I'd be curious to know the difference if someone does mostly city driving.
Easy enough to calculate based on NRCan's ratings. Hybrid in the city is 6.6 l/100 km, ICE 2.4 in the city 11.2 l/100 km, so ICE has incremental consumption of 4.6 l/100 km which at $1.60/liter is $74 per 1000 km. The premium for the hybrid is $4000 + hst which is $4520 so your breakeven is ~60,000 km, roughly 4 years driving for the average driver. But very few people will do 100% pure city driving...suburban driving at 60-80 kmph is great for fuel consumption, so a more realistic position would be to take the difference between the combined NRCan rating of 7.0 l/100 km for the hybrid and 10.0 l/100 km for the ICE, which then breaks even at ~95,000 km after you include HST in the price delta.
Nice analysis. What would be the repair/maintenance costs difference be between the ICE and Hybrid at 100k km? 200k km?
Difficult to say, one can only speculate. On the one hand the hybrid has the naturally aspirated 2.5 liter 4 cylinder engine which has been used by Toyota forever so a longer history of trouble free operation versus the 2.4 liter turbo which has just been introduced in the Toyota lineup, though it has been used for the past 2-3 years in the Lexus RX/NX-350. It will also be the only engine in the upcoming Land Cruiser, part of the hybrid set-up so Toyota clearly is betting it's reputation on that engine, so it should be trouble free.....
Pads and rotors should last longer on the hybrid due to regenerative braking but in our kind of weather with exposure to snow, salt etc. the rotors are likely to get rusted and may need to be changed regardless after 4-5 years. Grinding them to clear the rust can only done so many times....
The 2.4 turbo uses 0W-20 oil which is widely available, for the hybrid Toyota now recommends a 0W-8 oil!! Don't know about cost and availability of 0W-8!!
From my previous post, if you break even at 95,000 k, you are ahead financially after that. The hybrid battery has a 10 year/240,000 km warranty, so the sweet spot to sell of your hybrid is somewhere in between I would hazard. Because, would you buy a hybrid which is at 9 year/220,000 km knowing that the battery warranty is about to run out? Or do you just run the hybrid till the battery dies, then sell it As Is...... or do you replace the hybrid battery.
Talking about replacing hybrid batteries, The Car Care Nut has a video on replacing the hybrid battery in a Toyota hybrid. Now, this is in the US and the cost was $5800. I have no idea what the equivalent cost is in Canada but I am sure it will be more than that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3VFeMWINCc