Author Topic: Toyota's EV future  (Read 7455 times)

Offline warp

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #40 on: July 28, 2023, 08:58:45 am »
From a fleet wide perspective the greatest aggregate reduction in vehicle emissions will be achieved when the finite amount of rare minerals like cobalt, lithium & graphite which are constrained either at the mine head or in global processing capacity are allocated to hybrids or plug in hybrids  and not pure EVs. This is specially relevant when considering the lifetime emission cycle of pure EVs vs hybrids vs plug in hybrids from production to their operating cycle over 200,000 km. Pure EVs emit more carbon for the first 100,000 km of their life, because of their carbon heavy manufacturing process, and it is only when driven beyond this break even point do they emit less carbon than ICE vehicles. The supply of constrained minerals required for say a 80 kwh battery pack for a pure EV vs a 2 kwh battery pack for a hybrid or a 5 kwh battery pack for a plug in hybrid is why it makes sense  to allocate currently scarce minerals  to hybrids or plug ins. This will have the fastest impact in achieving an overall reduction in carbon emissions. The actual calculations for this have been detailed in a study which I cannot locate right now. But the reason that pure EVs get all the attention and the subsidies is because they are sexy and have great acceleration and are a cachet for progressive politicians to hang their hats on. From this perspective Toyota's emphasis on hybrids and plug in hybrids is on the money.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2023, 09:01:26 am by warp »

Offline CSH

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #41 on: July 28, 2023, 10:14:21 am »
This EV thing is quite amusing.  Current batteries are manufactured with minerals and refining processes that are horrendous to the environment in a large scale, not not mention child slave labour in Africa and political prisoner labour in China, all that completely ignored by purchasers.  We know who you are.  ;D

These current EV batteries a junk.  When that changes EVs will take off.  Why not?

Biden wants 50% of all passenger cars sold in the US to be EV by 2030 on lithium.  That 6 1/2 years away.  Just lent Ford 9 Billion for 2 battery plants.  So it's moving forward, but wrong tech.

Current EV batteries will last 400K plus KM without significant degradation. Some ICE engines last longer some dont. Battery technology is evolving rapidly, the current ones meet the requirements of a lot of the population (not all).


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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #42 on: July 28, 2023, 10:40:00 am »
From a fleet wide perspective the greatest aggregate reduction in vehicle emissions will be achieved when the finite amount of rare minerals like cobalt, lithium & graphite which are constrained either at the mine head or in global processing capacity are allocated to hybrids or plug in hybrids  and not pure EVs. This is specially relevant when considering the lifetime emission cycle of pure EVs vs hybrids vs plug in hybrids from production to their operating cycle over 200,000 km. Pure EVs emit more carbon for the first 100,000 km of their life, because of their carbon heavy manufacturing process, and it is only when driven beyond this break even point do they emit less carbon than ICE vehicles. The supply of constrained minerals required for say a 80 kwh battery pack for a pure EV vs a 2 kwh battery pack for a hybrid or a 5 kwh battery pack for a plug in hybrid is why it makes sense  to allocate currently scarce minerals  to hybrids or plug ins. This will have the fastest impact in achieving an overall reduction in carbon emissions. The actual calculations for this have been detailed in a study which I cannot locate right now. But the reason that pure EVs get all the attention and the subsidies is because they are sexy and have great acceleration and are a cachet for progressive politicians to hang their hats on. From this perspective Toyota's emphasis on hybrids and plug in hybrids is on the money.

This. SO MUCH THIS

Offline Guy

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #43 on: July 28, 2023, 02:34:43 pm »
From a fleet wide perspective the greatest aggregate reduction in vehicle emissions will be achieved when the finite amount of rare minerals like cobalt, lithium & graphite which are constrained either at the mine head or in global processing capacity are allocated to hybrids or plug in hybrids  and not pure EVs. This is specially relevant when considering the lifetime emission cycle of pure EVs vs hybrids vs plug in hybrids from production to their operating cycle over 200,000 km. Pure EVs emit more carbon for the first 100,000 km of their life, because of their carbon heavy manufacturing process, and it is only when driven beyond this break even point do they emit less carbon than ICE vehicles. The supply of constrained minerals required for say a 80 kwh battery pack for a pure EV vs a 2 kwh battery pack for a hybrid or a 5 kwh battery pack for a plug in hybrid is why it makes sense  to allocate currently scarce minerals  to hybrids or plug ins. This will have the fastest impact in achieving an overall reduction in carbon emissions. The actual calculations for this have been detailed in a study which I cannot locate right now. But the reason that pure EVs get all the attention and the subsidies is because they are sexy and have great acceleration and are a cachet for progressive politicians to hang their hats on. From this perspective Toyota's emphasis on hybrids and plug in hybrids is on the money.

Not sure where you took your 100,000 km figure, from Suncor?  ::)

According to this a model 3 needs 21,725 km to offset the carbon emitted during it's production, and that's in the US where 23% of electricity is produced with coal. With clean power like Norway or Quebec, that figures fall to 8,400 miles or 13,440 km.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/

Offline warp

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #44 on: July 28, 2023, 05:44:51 pm »
From a fleet wide perspective the greatest aggregate reduction in vehicle emissions will be achieved when the finite amount of rare minerals like cobalt, lithium & graphite which are constrained either at the mine head or in global processing capacity are allocated to hybrids or plug in hybrids  and not pure EVs. This is specially relevant when considering the lifetime emission cycle of pure EVs vs hybrids vs plug in hybrids from production to their operating cycle over 200,000 km. Pure EVs emit more carbon for the first 100,000 km of their life, because of their carbon heavy manufacturing process, and it is only when driven beyond this break even point do they emit less carbon than ICE vehicles. The supply of constrained minerals required for say a 80 kwh battery pack for a pure EV vs a 2 kwh battery pack for a hybrid or a 5 kwh battery pack for a plug in hybrid is why it makes sense  to allocate currently scarce minerals  to hybrids or plug ins. This will have the fastest impact in achieving an overall reduction in carbon emissions. The actual calculations for this have been detailed in a study which I cannot locate right now. But the reason that pure EVs get all the attention and the subsidies is because they are sexy and have great acceleration and are a cachet for progressive politicians to hang their hats on. From this perspective Toyota's emphasis on hybrids and plug in hybrids is on the money.

Not sure where you took your 100,000 km figure, from Suncor?  ::)

According to this a model 3 needs 21,725 km to offset the carbon emitted during it's production, and that's in the US where 23% of electricity is produced with coal. With clean power like Norway or Quebec, that figures fall to 8,400 miles or 13,440 km.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/

Yes, the figure is 21,725 km for a Model 3 in the US with it's specific electricity generation mix. But further down in this article the break even point is given for countries such as China and Poland which have a higher percentage of electricity generation via coal:

Quote
If the electricity to recharge the EV comes entirely from coal, which generates the majority of the power in countries such as China and Poland, you would have to drive 78,700 miles to reach carbon parity with the Corolla, according to the Reuters analysis of data generated by Argonne's model.

78,500 miles is 125,600 km. China is the world's largest car market and the world's largest EV market at about 23 million annual sales vs about 13 million for the US. China also is the world's largest electricity generator with about 2x the capacity of the US and 57% of China's electricity generation is via coal. That means that China generates as much electricity via coal as the entire electricity generation of the US!! Now if you can find a way to erect giant fans around the perimeter of the North American continent and blow the dirty Chinese air back across the Pacific you may have a winner on hand to keep North American air pristine and clean and all the economic sacrifices our fearless leader is asking us to make will be worth it!! But since this is a global problem I would reckon that the global weighted average break even point is about 100,000 km for EVs, less for some countries such as Canada, the US and Norway and more for other countries such as China, India, Poland, South Africa etc., skewed more towards 125,000 km rather than 21,725 km simply due to larger populations, higher auto sales, higher electricity generation and a higher proportion of that electricity generated being via burning coal in those countries.

Further down this same article is another interesting nugget of information:

Quote
Some are less positive about EVs.

University of Liege researcher Damien Ernst said in 2019 that the typical EV would have to travel nearly 700,000 km before it emitted less CO2 than a comparable gasoline vehicle. He later revised his figures down.

Now, he estimates the break-even point could be between 67,000 km and 151,000 km. Ernst told Reuters he did not plan to change those findings, which were based on a different set of data and assumptions than in Argonne's model.

« Last Edit: July 28, 2023, 05:47:23 pm by warp »

Online rrocket

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #45 on: July 28, 2023, 06:39:21 pm »
From a fleet wide perspective the greatest aggregate reduction in vehicle emissions will be achieved when the finite amount of rare minerals like cobalt, lithium & graphite which are constrained either at the mine head or in global processing capacity are allocated to hybrids or plug in hybrids  and not pure EVs. This is specially relevant when considering the lifetime emission cycle of pure EVs vs hybrids vs plug in hybrids from production to their operating cycle over 200,000 km. Pure EVs emit more carbon for the first 100,000 km of their life, because of their carbon heavy manufacturing process, and it is only when driven beyond this break even point do they emit less carbon than ICE vehicles. The supply of constrained minerals required for say a 80 kwh battery pack for a pure EV vs a 2 kwh battery pack for a hybrid or a 5 kwh battery pack for a plug in hybrid is why it makes sense  to allocate currently scarce minerals  to hybrids or plug ins. This will have the fastest impact in achieving an overall reduction in carbon emissions. The actual calculations for this have been detailed in a study which I cannot locate right now. But the reason that pure EVs get all the attention and the subsidies is because they are sexy and have great acceleration and are a cachet for progressive politicians to hang their hats on. From this perspective Toyota's emphasis on hybrids and plug in hybrids is on the money.

Not sure where you took your 100,000 km figure, from Suncor?  ::)

According to this a model 3 needs 21,725 km to offset the carbon emitted during it's production, and that's in the US where 23% of electricity is produced with coal. With clean power like Norway or Quebec, that figures fall to 8,400 miles or 13,440 km.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-do-electric-vehicles-become-cleaner-than-gasoline-cars-2021-06-29/

Yes, the figure is 21,725 km for a Model 3 in the US with it's specific electricity generation mix. But further down in this article the break even point is given for countries such as China and Poland which have a higher percentage of electricity generation via coal:

Quote
If the electricity to recharge the EV comes entirely from coal, which generates the majority of the power in countries such as China and Poland, you would have to drive 78,700 miles to reach carbon parity with the Corolla, according to the Reuters analysis of data generated by Argonne's model.

78,500 miles is 125,600 km. China is the world's largest car market and the world's largest EV market at about 23 million annual sales vs about 13 million for the US. China also is the world's largest electricity generator with about 2x the capacity of the US and 57% of China's electricity generation is via coal. That means that China generates as much electricity via coal as the entire electricity generation of the US!! Now if you can find a way to erect giant fans around the perimeter of the North American continent and blow the dirty Chinese air back across the Pacific you may have a winner on hand to keep North American air pristine and clean and all the economic sacrifices our fearless leader is asking us to make will be worth it!! But since this is a global problem I would reckon that the global weighted average break even point is about 100,000 km for EVs, less for some countries such as Canada, the US and Norway and more for other countries such as China, India, Poland, South Africa etc., skewed more towards 125,000 km rather than 21,725 km simply due to larger populations, higher auto sales, higher electricity generation and a higher proportion of that electricity generated being via burning coal in those countries.

Further down this same article is another interesting nugget of information:

Quote
Some are less positive about EVs.

University of Liege researcher Damien Ernst said in 2019 that the typical EV would have to travel nearly 700,000 km before it emitted less CO2 than a comparable gasoline vehicle. He later revised his figures down.

Now, he estimates the break-even point could be between 67,000 km and 151,000 km. Ernst told Reuters he did not plan to change those findings, which were based on a different set of data and assumptions than in Argonne's model.
So. Much. This. The atmosphere doesn't care about per capita this or that.

As long as "dirty" power generating countries like China and India keep cranking out coal plants....the EV pipe dream in North America is just virtue signaling.
How fast is my 911?  Supras sh*t on on me all the time...in reverse..with blown turbos  :( ...

Offline Ontariodriver

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #46 on: July 28, 2023, 07:08:14 pm »
China is the world's largest car market and the world's largest EV market at about 23 million annual sales vs about 13 million for the US.


Some people are suspecting those figures might not be entirely true.  ;)

https://insideevs.com/news/672926/china-abandoned-electric-car-graveyard-byd-geely/

As long as "dirty" power generating countries like China and India keep cranking out coal plants....the EV pipe dream in North America is just virtue signaling.

At record levels too. We're doomed. Climate Change be damned.  ;D

https://www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-set-to-remain-at-record-levels-in-2023

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #47 on: July 28, 2023, 08:24:28 pm »
It’s shocking how many new coal power plants China has slated to build. I often see the trains running through BC hauling all the coal to the coast to be shipped overseas. But hey, it’s going to keep the mining industry busy!

Online rrocket

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #48 on: July 29, 2023, 05:07:10 am »
It’s shocking how many new coal power plants China has slated to build. I often see the trains running through BC hauling all the coal to the coast to be shipped overseas. But hey, it’s going to keep the mining industry busy!
It's shocking how fast they can build them!

Offline PJungnitsch

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #49 on: July 29, 2023, 01:48:05 pm »
It’s shocking how many new coal power plants China has slated to build. I often see the trains running through BC hauling all the coal to the coast to be shipped overseas. But hey, it’s going to keep the mining industry busy!

To be fair, most of that is metallurgical coal

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #50 on: July 29, 2023, 02:38:00 pm »
It’s shocking how many new coal power plants China has slated to build. I often see the trains running through BC hauling all the coal to the coast to be shipped overseas. But hey, it’s going to keep the mining industry busy!

To be fair, most of that is metallurgical coal

That's right.  From Wyoming that has 4 different varieties.  Their coking coal goes to China via BC.  The stuff used for power plants stays in the US primarily.

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #51 on: July 29, 2023, 02:45:50 pm »
Interesting. So coal from BC isn’t for burning? Whereabouts does China get all it’s coal for power generation?

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #52 on: July 29, 2023, 02:46:17 pm »
So. Much. This. The atmosphere doesn't care about per capita this or that.

As long as "dirty" power generating countries like China and India keep cranking out coal plants....the EV pipe dream in North America is just virtue signaling.


^^
India is stuck with coal.  75% of electricity is coal fired.  1.4 Billion people.  Do the math on emissions.

And here we are destroying Canadians standard of living with carbon taxes and actively destroying the only industry left in the country that creates wealth.

BRAVO!

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #53 on: July 29, 2023, 03:00:05 pm »
Interesting. So coal from BC isn’t for burning? Whereabouts does China get all it’s coal for power generation?

That side of the world.  Russia, Australia.  China has a lot.  They are going to keep using it for decades just like India.

I had to suffer thru the Psychosis that the majority of Canadians displayed over COVID and now I'm plagued with the Psychosis of Global Warming; "WILD" fires, "Heat Domes", et al.  It's forces one into substance abuse.  ;D   

Offline JohnnyMac

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #54 on: July 29, 2023, 03:15:56 pm »
So. Much. This. The atmosphere doesn't care about per capita this or that.

As long as "dirty" power generating countries like China and India keep cranking out coal plants....the EV pipe dream in North America is just virtue signaling.


^^
India is stuck with coal.  75% of electricity is coal fired.  1.4 Billion people.  Do the math on emissions.

And here we are destroying Canadians standard of living with carbon taxes and actively destroying the only industry left in the country that creates wealth.

BRAVO!
The thing is, how do you get other countries that pollute excessively to clean up their act?  They are typically poor countries unable and unwilling to spend on environmental upgrades. 

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #55 on: July 29, 2023, 07:43:47 pm »
Can't be done. 

Countries that pollute are over populated.  The earth can sustain x number of humans.  It's that simple.

Back to Toyota's EV future; they know what they're doing.  It's called JAPAN INC.

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #56 on: July 29, 2023, 08:48:55 pm »
Interesting. So coal from BC isn’t for burning? Whereabouts does China get all it’s coal for power generation?
China has lots. They even run some trains on coal.

The videos of the coal trains running at night are fairly spectacular!

https://youtube.com/shorts/d2fsKyJ07mg?feature=share
« Last Edit: July 29, 2023, 09:07:04 pm by rrocket »

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #57 on: July 29, 2023, 10:26:53 pm »
Wow! Pretty spectacular sight! It’s a darn good thing China’s busy selling EV’s to the plebeians to help offset their emissions.

Offline warp

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #58 on: July 30, 2023, 07:56:21 am »
Can't be done. 

Countries that pollute are over populated.  The earth can sustain x number of humans.  It's that simple.

Back to Toyota's EV future; they know what they're doing.  It's called JAPAN INC.

Correct. Over the last 25-30 years, ~300 million people in the former communist ruled East bloc have had an exponential increase in their standard of living, as have about a billion people from China and about a billion more from India. As a result electricity generation and car production and sales in both China and India have increased 400% in the last 20 years alone with most of that electricity generation powered by coal. People in poorer countries are now looking to aspire to the same standard of living that they see on social media  in North America, Western Europe and Japan.

And yes, Toyota know what they are doing. That is why there is a long waiting period for Toyota hybrids and plug in hybrids in contrast to pure EVs which are readily available. The collective wisdom of people is always superior to Government mandates. Our Great Leader might beg to differ on this last point though :rofl2:
« Last Edit: July 30, 2023, 07:58:05 am by warp »

Offline EV Dan

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Re: Toyota's EV future
« Reply #59 on: September 15, 2023, 07:28:33 pm »
Solid state batteries are still 5 years away. Meanwhile this is what they have around the corner:



https://insideevs.com/news/686731/toyota-details-next-gen-ev-batteries-promises-497-mile-2026/

BTW, not to be a fanboy, I don't know where they get 500km range in the BZ4X  :-\
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 07:31:52 pm by EV Dan »
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