Author Topic: The car market is turning. (Read 98447 times)

Jaeger · « **Reply #260 on:** March 16, 2023, 01:15:00 pm »

When supply is low, it makes zero sense to build base-spec vehicles - gotta maximize profit per unit.

valuator · « **Reply #261 on:** March 16, 2023, 01:33:21 pm »

Quote from: Jaeger on March 16, 2023, 01:15:00 pm

When supply is low, it makes zero sense to build base-spec vehicles - gotta maximize profit per unit.

Which totally makes sense, it's just weird to see in practice.

Canyon - Yes, I meant to say Elevation is now the base spec and it's VERY well equipped. The Denali is a real luxo-truck. AT4 is cool but irrelevant to me....the AT4 Sierra rides like garbage and the off-road bits will never get used.

OliverD · « **Reply #262 on:** March 16, 2023, 01:34:14 pm »

Quote from: valuator on March 16, 2023, 01:33:21 pm

Quote from: Jaeger on March 16, 2023, 01:15:00 pm
When supply is low, it makes zero sense to build base-spec vehicles - gotta maximize profit per unit.

Which totally makes sense, it's just weird to see in practice.

Canyon - Yes, I meant to say Elevation is now the base spec and it's VERY well equipped. The Denali is a real luxo-truck. AT4 is cool but irrelevant to me....the AT4 Sierra rides like garbage and the off-road bits will never get used.

Yeah and the Elevation starts at like $48k.

PJungnitsch · « **Reply #263 on:** March 16, 2023, 01:35:54 pm »

What they are missing from that logic is demand.

Demand was high during the pandemic when people had extra money saved up from sitting around and interest rates were low

Now that people are spending money again on holidays etc and interest rates are sky high, the demand isn't there any more

Ergo dealer lots groaning with expensive stock

Chev dealer we service our work vehicles at lists 325 1500 pickups in stock with the cheapest trim 'Work Truck' starting at $61,000

Something has to give

OliverD · « **Reply #264 on:** March 16, 2023, 02:10:04 pm »

Quote from: PJungnitsch on March 16, 2023, 01:35:54 pm

What they are missing from that logic is demand.

Demand was high during the pandemic when people had extra money saved up from sitting around and interest rates were low

Now that people are spending money again on holidays etc and interest rates are sky high, the demand isn't there any more

Ergo dealer lots groaning with expensive stock

Chev dealer we service our work vehicles at lists 325 1500 pickups in stock with the cheapest trim 'Work Truck' starting at $61,000

Something has to give

Sure, but there's still many vehicles that are supply constrained. Some lots have a lot of stock, others have almost none. Inevitably, rebates and base models will return if they need to.

2JDM · « **Reply #265 on:** March 16, 2023, 05:16:20 pm »

Keep on waiting and have cash ready.

Even then, once discounts start rolling in again, I don't think the prices will be as low as pre-pandemic, given the MSRP increases and deletion of more base models. $:-\$

ktm525 · « **Reply #266 on:** March 16, 2023, 05:21:28 pm »

Quote from: 1FGC on March 16, 2023, 05:16:20 pm

Keep on waiting and have cash ready.

Even then, once discounts start rolling in again, I don't think the prices will be as low as pre-pandemic, given the MSRP increases and deletion of more base models. $:-\$

Never say never. GM once got as low as $30k off of MSRP on Yukons

It's why their resale numbers looked so bad. They were based off of MSRP but no one paid MSRP.

PJungnitsch · « **Reply #267 on:** March 16, 2023, 05:56:59 pm »

Yep, MSRP's for the domestic body on frame stuff have historically been almost as meaningful as this:

Stanley Professional Grade Black Chrome Socket Set, 203-pc SAE/Metric
$159.99
price was $549.99
Save 70% ($390)

Of course the fine folks at CT would like you to buy at $549.00

ArticSteve · « **Reply #268 on:** March 16, 2023, 07:56:07 pm »

Something has to give

It is and it's not what you think. Wages heading down? I would guess that all you fine folks would say that is a solid NO. Taxes headed down? Healthcare costs head down? Machinery heading down/any of your folks farm? Yet your next new car will be much less than it is now

Fantastic

Seafoam · « **Reply #269 on:** March 16, 2023, 08:17:47 pm »

People are still buying cars. Just stretch the time to pay. The difference this time with inflation is that many still have jobs.

EV-Light · « **Reply #270 on:** March 16, 2023, 10:49:35 pm »

Quote from: ArticSteve on March 16, 2023, 07:56:07 pm

Something has to give

It is and it's not what you think. Wages heading down? I would guess that all you fine folks would say that is a solid NO. Taxes headed down? Healthcare costs head down? Machinery heading down/any of your folks farm? Yet your next new car will be much less than it is now

Fantastic

Yep! Unfortunately you are 10000% correct.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

WP v3.32 · « **Reply #271 on:** March 17, 2023, 02:51:07 pm »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWHTTdCUgr0

pi314 · « **Reply #272 on:** March 17, 2023, 02:56:47 pm »

I suspect a recession will reset car prices to some degree, eg in 2009/2010 you could get a caravan for 20k+tax, wranglers for 25k, etc. Today a grand caravan starts at... 48k?

Like I don't expect pricing to return to 20k, but at the same time prices have gone insane.

Great_Big_Abyss · « **Reply #273 on:** March 17, 2023, 02:59:04 pm »

Quote from: pi314 on March 17, 2023, 02:56:47 pm

I suspect a recession will reset car prices to some degree, eg in 2009/2010 you could get a caravan for 20k+tax, wranglers for 25k, etc. Today a grand caravan starts at... 48k?

Like I don't expect pricing to return to 20k, but at the same time prices have gone insane.

Just the other day I saw a used 2016 Grand Caravan with 77000kms on it advertised at $24k. It was a base model, a CVP, which in 2016, would have sold for $19 900k brand new.

valuator · « **Reply #274 on:** March 17, 2023, 02:59:48 pm »

Quote from: Great_Big_Abyss on March 17, 2023, 02:59:04 pm

Quote from: pi314 on March 17, 2023, 02:56:47 pm
I suspect a recession will reset car prices to some degree, eg in 2009/2010 you could get a caravan for 20k+tax, wranglers for 25k, etc. Today a grand caravan starts at... 48k?

Like I don't expect pricing to return to 20k, but at the same time prices have gone insane.

Just the other day I saw a used 2016 Grand Caravan with 77000kms on it advertised at $24k. It was a base model, a CVP, which in 2016, would have sold for $19 900k brand new.

I thought this only happened to Buicks

Woodrow · « **Reply #275 on:** March 17, 2023, 03:01:27 pm »

It really hasn’t sunk in for a lot of folks that prices aren’t going down. Only your standard of living.

WP v3.32 · « **Reply #276 on:** March 17, 2023, 03:10:44 pm »

There will be a correction. it might not come down as much as we want but it will. Subprime loan crash is at our door step.

Not directly related but Silicone Valley Bank going under is the first one since 2008, wont be the last..

Edit: "The Big Short" the sequel is probably already being written

PJungnitsch · « **Reply #277 on:** March 17, 2023, 03:18:40 pm »

It's starting

https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1636803292582772756

Guy · « **Reply #278 on:** March 17, 2023, 05:51:42 pm »

My son is selling his 2013 Kia Rio 5 LX+ with 77,000 km. I looked at the tool on auto trader and the top price was $7100. Looking at prices on auto trader and market place he advertised it for $8900. Thats 52% of the original MSRP for a 10 year old Kia. Boy, he is swamped with messages, one even offered $9K without even seeing the car! I know some of these are likely phonies but at least 3 or 4 looks legit. Not sure what to think? Thought the used car market was cooling off and that Kia had shitty resale value.

What give?

ktm525 · « **Reply #279 on:** March 17, 2023, 07:06:59 pm »

Anything decent on gasoline will sell.