Author Topic: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...  (Read 1814 times)

Offline johngenx

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We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« on: June 18, 2008, 04:08:37 pm »
There seems to be a growing consensus that we've reached, or perhaps passed, peak oil.  I think regardless of how much oil is in the ground, we might have.

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/6/more_peak_oil_rhetoric_from_boone_pickens

Why won't supply increase?  In the past, high prices spurred the search for oil.  Companies used the massive profit gains to ramp up drilling and R&D into new extraction.  This time they seem to be just filling the corporate treasuries with the money and watching to see just how high the price can go.

We need that money.  The energy crisis (yes, we are in one) is causing a collapse of our economic base.  Airlines are folding up, food costs are escalating and inflation threatens to cause another stagflation meltdown.  We need the money to be pumped into alternative energy sources, creating a new economic engine based on finding, creating, and building the infrastructure of non-oil based energy.

Just as the technology revolution of the last half of the 20th century reinvented our world in many ways, the search for new-renewable and inexpensive energy sources can revolutionize the 21st century.  This is knowledge based work that labour-based economies like China can't take on.  We need to take the lead and invest money and effort into this and if we don't, what is the future of nations like Canada and the US?

Alberta lets the hundreds of billions of dollars float away.  Other countries squander the money on subsidizing the oil prices for the local economy, a short term solution at best.  When oil is at $200+/bbl and we're truly facing economic catastrophe, we won't have the economic base to provide the investment required.  A country like Norway might, thanks to their royalty program that has allowed them to build an investment portfolio of close to a trillion dollars.

dorin

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2008, 04:25:47 pm »
Yup.  It's really very sad to see how short-sighted Alberta is in not having a serious oil royalty-based sovereign wealth fund.  :(

Offline DockMan

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2008, 04:30:59 pm »
It would be nice to see some money going into this research!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4133668.ece

 O0 That is really cool. (Full text below)

June 14, 2008
Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol
Silicon Valley is experimenting with bacteria that have been genetically altered to provide 'renewable petroleum'
Some diesel fuel produced by genetically modified bugs

Some diesel fuel produced by genetically modified bugs
Image :1 of 3
Chris Ayres

“Ten years ago I could never have imagined I’d be doing this,” says Greg Pal, 33, a former software executive, as he squints into the late afternoon Californian sun. “I mean, this is essentially agriculture, right? But the people I talk to – especially the ones coming out of business school – this is the one hot area everyone wants to get into.”

He means bugs. To be more precise: the genetic alteration of bugs – very, very small ones – so that when they feed on agricultural waste such as woodchips or wheat straw, they do something extraordinary. They excrete crude oil.

Unbelievably, this is not science fiction. Mr Pal holds up a small beaker of bug excretion that could, theoretically, be poured into the tank of the giant Lexus SUV next to us. Not that Mr Pal is willing to risk it just yet. He gives it a month before the first vehicle is filled up on what he calls “renewable petroleum”. After that, he grins, “it’s a brave new world”.

Mr Pal is a senior director of LS9, one of several companies in or near Silicon Valley that have spurned traditional high-tech activities such as software and networking and embarked instead on an extraordinary race to make $140-a-barrel oil (£70) from Saudi Arabia obsolete. “All of us here – everyone in this company and in this industry, are aware of the urgency,” Mr Pal says.

What is most remarkable about what they are doing is that instead of trying to reengineer the global economy – as is required, for example, for the use of hydrogen fuel – they are trying to make a product that is interchangeable with oil. The company claims that this “Oil 2.0” will not only be renewable but also carbon negative – meaning that the carbon it emits will be less than that sucked from the atmosphere by the raw materials from which it is made.

LS9 has already convinced one oil industry veteran of its plan: Bob Walsh, 50, who now serves as the firm’s president after a 26-year career at Shell, most recently running European supply operations in London. “How many times in your life do you get the opportunity to grow a multi-billion-dollar company?” he asks. It is a bold statement from a man who works in a glorified cubicle in a San Francisco industrial estate for a company that describes itself as being “prerevenue”.

Inside LS9’s cluttered laboratory – funded by $20 million of start-up capital from investors including Vinod Khosla, the Indian-American entrepreneur who co-founded Sun Micro-systems – Mr Pal explains that LS9’s bugs are single-cell organisms, each a fraction of a billionth the size of an ant. They start out as industrial yeast or nonpathogenic strains of E. coli, but LS9 modifies them by custom-de-signing their DNA. “Five to seven years ago, that process would have taken months and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars,” he says. “Now it can take weeks and cost maybe $20,000.”

Because crude oil (which can be refined into other products, such as petroleum or jet fuel) is only a few molecular stages removed from the fatty acids normally excreted by yeast or E. coli during fermentation, it does not take much fiddling to get the desired result.

For fermentation to take place you need raw material, or feedstock, as it is known in the biofuels industry. Anything will do as long as it can be broken down into sugars, with the byproduct ideally burnt to produce electricity to run the plant.

The company is not interested in using corn as feedstock, given the much-publicised problems created by using food crops for fuel, such as the tortilla inflation that recently caused food riots in Mexico City. Instead, different types of agricultural waste will be used according to whatever makes sense for the local climate and economy: wheat straw in California, for example, or woodchips in the South.

Using genetically modified bugs for fermentation is essentially the same as using natural bacteria to produce ethanol, although the energy-intensive final process of distillation is virtually eliminated because the bugs excrete a substance that is almost pump-ready.

The closest that LS9 has come to mass production is a 1,000-litre fermenting machine, which looks like a large stainless-steel jar, next to a wardrobe-sized computer connected by a tangle of cables and tubes. It has not yet been plugged in. The machine produces the equivalent of one barrel a week and takes up 40 sq ft of floor space.

However, to substitute America’s weekly oil consumption of 143 million barrels, you would need a facility that covered about 205 square miles, an area roughly the size of Chicago.

That is the main problem: although LS9 can produce its bug fuel in laboratory beakers, it has no idea whether it will be able produce the same results on a nationwide or even global scale.

“Our plan is to have a demonstration-scale plant operational by 2010 and, in parallel, we’ll be working on the design and construction of a commercial-scale facility to open in 2011,” says Mr Pal, adding that if LS9 used Brazilian sugar cane as its feedstock, its fuel would probably cost about $50 a barrel.

Are Americans ready to be putting genetically modified bug excretion in their cars? “It’s not the same as with food,” Mr Pal says. “We’re putting these bacteria in a very isolated container: their entire universe is in that tank. When we’re done with them, they’re destroyed.”

Besides, he says, there is greater good being served. “I have two children, and climate change is something that they are going to face. The energy crisis is something that they are going to face. We have a collective responsibility to do this.”

Power points

— Google has set up an initiative to develop electricity from cheap renewable energy sources

— Craig Venter, who mapped the human genome, has created a company to create hydrogen and ethanol from genetically engineered bugs

— The US Energy and Agriculture Departments said in 2005 that there was land available to produce enough biomass (nonedible plant parts) to replace 30 per cent of current liquid transport fuels
« Last Edit: June 18, 2008, 04:33:58 pm by DockMan »
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Offline safristi

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2008, 05:40:53 pm »
...a MAJOR oil producer ( by the BIG OIL wallahs) just came on line from the Mexican GULF after three years and MULTI_MILLIONS of paychecks!!!!) 250,000 barrels a day...like U lot care......drill the arse off Florida ,California & the ANWAR sludge.....and build a coupla dozen NUKES while we are at it................ :bang: :banghead: :light: :banana: :banana: :banana: :thumbup: :stick: :inlove: :bounce: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:...tha Wind is @ MY BACK and in U GREENIES FACE.............so BLOW my windmill next year and the year after and the next 20 years after that while they collapse ;and  annoy SENATOR TED KENNEDY whilst he yachts his way ta MURTHA's  BULL SHIPYARD..... :(............
« Last Edit: June 18, 2008, 05:45:48 pm by safristi »
Time is to stop everything happening at once

Offline Ice

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2008, 06:29:06 pm »
I'm not sure if we've past peak oil but we're definitely flat.  No matter what everyone does it seems like demand continues to increase but production simply cannot follow. It may be that we'll stay on this plateau for a while and then ever so slightly start to head down the other side.

I just hope that the crisis mode that we're in now will develop some interesting new technologies that are more friendly to the planet and provide the economy with what it needs for people to get around.

Offline huota

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2008, 12:09:14 pm »
Here's another view on peak oil: http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6880

Defying conventional geology

That radically different Russian and Ukrainian scientific approach to the discovery of oil allowed the USSR to develop huge gas and oil discoveries in regions previously judged unsuitable, according to Western geological exploration theories, for presence of oil. The new petroleum theory was used in the early 1990’s, well after the dissolution of the USSR, to drill for oil and gas in a region believed for more than forty-five years, to be geologically barren—the Dnieper-Donets Basin in the region between Russia and Ukraine.

Following their a-biotic or non-fossil theory of the deep origins of petroleum, the Russian and Ukrainian petroleum geophysicists and chemists began with a detailed analysis of the tectonic history and geological structure of the crystalline basement of the Dnieper-Donets Basin. After a tectonic and deep structural analysis of the area, they made geophysical and geochemical investigations.

A total of sixty one wells were drilled, of which thirty seven were commercially productive, an extremely impressive exploration success rate of almost sixty percent. The size of the field discovered compared with the North Slope of Alaska. By contrast, US wildcat drilling was considered successful with a ten percent success rate. Nine of ten wells are typically “dry holes.”

Fiction is the lie through which we tell the truth

Wolfe

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2008, 01:06:48 pm »

Why won't supply increase?  In the past, high prices spurred the search for oil.  Companies used the massive profit gains to ramp up drilling and R&D into new extraction.

Take a look at the Export-Land Model. :foil:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_land_model
"the fractional decline in exports is much greater than the sum of the fractional increase in domestic consumption and the fractional decline in production."

Earlier this year Russia said that their oil production had peaked. Russia currently exports about 7million barrels per day. If the Export-Land Model is accurate then that 7mbpd supply could vanish from the global oil market in 6 to 9 years. (And keep in mind that most major car manufacturers are investing heavily in Russia right now.)

Mexico's oil production peaked in 2004 and has been declining since then. Pemex, the national oil company recently announced that oil exports to the US would fall short of agreed levels by an average of nearly 200 000 barrels per day for the rest of 2008. Mexico supplies 14% of US oil imports, but by 2015 that supply might be gone.

This scenario has already played out in the UK and Indonesia and is pretty scary if you live somewhere that relies on imported oil (as most of us in central and eastern Canada do.)

Offline safristi

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Re: We're missing our big chance with $150/bbl oil...
« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2008, 04:17:30 pm »
... ??? ::)  so put that lil "flea" in the ear of yer Gov rep....to DIG DEEPER and OFTENER!!!