Made the deal. X-Trail XE AWD auto. $1700 below MSRP, including all admin fees (~$600 over invoice). Grad discount on top of that. Prepaid lease at 3.75%, with a $475 security deposit comes to $16,650. A fair bit less than the $18,000 I was budgeting earlier. Those numbers were from Nissan's online calculator, which clearly cannot be trusted.
Drove a Legacy and nearly fell in love with it, but it's two grand more. Were it my car, that's what we'd have. Instead, this is the wife's car. She prefers the shorter, higher stance of the X-Trail. The interior, while full of plastic, is very functional and practical for skiers like us. If the convertible is worth more to somebody else than it is to me (white with white leather - any pimps in da house?), I'll flip it for a manual something-or-other.
Thanks to all who offered their advice, opinions, and criticism of my math.