As you can see, we are well into Level 2, transitioning into Level 3; but Level 4, the true “self-driving car” is still commercially a long way off, according to Nissan Canada President Christian Meunier.

But 2017 will be a big year for autonomous vehicles. Cadillac will debut Level 3 “Super Cruise” technology, “that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour (112 km/h) or in stop-and-go congested traffic,” according to GM’s Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra (the expectation is that traffic laws will be in place by then that will actually permit such capability).

“With Super Cruise,” she explained at a speech in Detroit’s Cobo Center, “when there’s a congestion alert on roads like California’s Santa Monica Freeway, you can let the car take over and drive hands free and feet free through the worst stop-and-go traffic around,”

Also in 2017 according to Ms. Barra, Cadillac “will become the first automaker to equip a model with so-called vehicle-to-vehicle technology that enables the car to communicate with other autos with similar abilities to warn of traffic hazards and improve road safety.” This “V2V” technology will be available in the 2017 Cadillac CTS and that is an important development. It’s V2V and the ad hoc vehicle networks that it enables, which will, among other things, prevent AVs from colliding (there’s also V2X – Vehicle to Everything – where your vehicle is able to communicate with other vehicles, traffic lights, toll gates, pedestrians, and even the owner’s home. That comes later.).

Toyota’s been talking about and working on autonomous technologies for years. The company imagines networks of cars, sensing each other, not able to collide with each other. A collision-free world; do-able, as it turns out.

“Toyota’s vision is of a world without traffic fatalities, and these advanced connected and automated vehicle technologies hold the potential to revolutionize automotive safety,” says Seigo Kuzamaki, Toyota’s Deputy Chief Safety Officer. Toyota and Lexus say 2017 for the introduction of its semi-autonomous Integrated Safety Management system.

Nissan will have autonomous driving technology in many of its vehicles by 2020. Nissan cars won’t actually drive around by themselves, but by the end of 2016 (2017 model year) Nissan promises to bring to market a traffic-jam pilot, “enabling cars to drive autonomously – and safely – on congested highways,” according to Mr. Meunier. They’ll also make fully automated parking systems available across a wide range of Nissan vehicles.

In 2018 it’s multiple lane controls that enable Nissan cars to negotiate hazards and change lanes on a highway, and before the end of the decade we’ll see intersection autonomy, enabling vehicles to negotiate city crossroads without driver intervention.

Volvo, too, is racing to 2017, when it plans to put 100 driverless cars on the road in Sweden, along with others in Norway. Its goal is to become the first on the road with a “market viable” autonomous car, “by about 2020,” which is when Volvo expects the realization of its bold “Vision 2020” commitment that no person will be killed or seriously injured in a new Volvo car thenceforth. Can’t crash, you see.

But what about Google and Apple. What are they actually up to?

In the case of Google, the company’s been developing a technology called Google Chauffeur that would form an autonomous platform carmakers can use in their vehicles. To that end they’ve been largely leapfrogging the automotive industry by going straight to a Level 4 driverless car. After all, if you can nail Level 4, you’ve got Level 3 controls in the bag as well.

Google engineers along with company owners Sergey Brin and Larry Page seem genuinely motivated to reduce collisions, congestion and fuel consumption by developing such technology. Unlike car companies, at least historically, they see these problems as a software issue. Google Chauffeur therefore involves the use of a laser range finder (LIDAR) that generates a three-dimensional map of the vehicle’s immediate environment. The car then compares the real-time laser images with detailed street maps (oh, that’s what they wanted Street View for…) in order to generate a route that avoids obstacles and obeys the rules of the road.

There are, of course, myriad other sensors that allow the car to “observe” the surrounding environment, along with processors on-board to interpret and react to it. A GPS handles the routing. Google now has driverless cars on the road trundling around avoiding obstacles. They look like little eggs.

Interestingly, at a 2011 keynote address to the Institute of Electroncis and Electrical Engineers (IEEE) by Google project chief Sebastian Thrun, and engineer Chris Urmson, it was reported in the IEEE Spectrum that, “Sometimes, however, the car has to be more “aggressive.” When going through a four-way intersection, for example, it yields to other vehicles based on road rules; but if other cars don’t reciprocate, it advances a bit to show to the other drivers its intention.” In other words, it’s programmed to behave as people do. “Without programming that kind of behaviour,” Urmson said, “it would be impossible for the robot car to drive in the real world.”

Let’s let that sink in. It will adopt an aggressive posture. It will show the other drivers its intention. Presumably it will back off if provoked. Hope so. Grrrrrr!

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